Here are the updated odds for Dancing with the Stars, as produced by Wynn Las Vegas Director of Race & Sports Book Operations Johnny Avello following last night’s season premiere; Dance Star. As Seattle slinked to the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, in Glendale, Ariz., Johnny Avello was trekking from his Wynn Las Vegas office to the property’s sportsbook. A seven-figure sum rode on.

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Johnny Avello left without ever having to leave. A former bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas for 13 years, the affable New Yorker became the head of sportsbook at DraftKings in 2018 when legal sports betting became a possibility outside of Nevada with the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act.

But the technology-based nature of a role that attracted him to one of the new vanguards of online and mobile sports betting allowed him to remain in his long-time home. His Boston-based company — which offers bets in 10 states after going online in Illinois in August — opened a new office in Vegas in January, with plans to employ as many as 300 people.

But the company doesn’t offer bets there yet. Neither does its daily fantasy and sports betting rival FanDuel.

If either of them has a sense of theatrics, announcing a Nevada campaign would have great effect in October, on the five-year anniversary of an unfavorable ruling by the Nevada Gaming Commission that prompted their exodus as daily fantasy operators.

There’s still time. And executives from both companies have expressed a desire to eventually offer sports bets in the country’s ancestral home of gambling. It remains an objective, but one in a queue with other states they hope to add to their expanding portfolios.

At the Global Gaming Expo in October, FanDuel CEO Matt King said that returning to Nevada was “absolutely” in company plans.

“We want to go where our customers are. We know a lot of our customers travel here. We know a lot of our target audience lives here, and so we’d be excited to be back in Vegas one day,” he said.

Analysts: Offering bets in Nevada about more than handle, revenue

It will certainly be a symbolic moment in the unfurling history of legal sports betting in the United States. For DraftKings and FanDuel, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming analyst Chris Grove told PlayUSA the incursion he considers inevitable will be more about optics than commerce.

“I think it’s more about creating that unique live experience and offering that as part of the universe of products that they’re trying to offer to players, and then as part of this sort of constellation of reasons to bet with us and ways to bet with us,” Grove explained. “So, I think the participation in Nevada is useful on a few levels, but it really comes down to if you want to present yourself as a nationwide leader in sports betting, to not have a presence in what is the spiritual capital of sports betting if not the revenue capital really feels discordant.”

Post-PASPA, legal sports betting sprouted up on the East Coast, notably in a unique mutation in New Jersey, and has worked its way through the Midwest, into the Rockies and up against Nevada’s border. Currently, 19 jurisdictions have betting underway, with four states in some stage of implementation.

Launching in Nevada would undoubtedly be celebrated like an Armistice Day of sports betting by two companies renowned or infamous — depending on your perspective — for promotion.

To do so, they will need to affiliate with an existing retail partner because of current state law.

But whether DraftKings and FanDuel change Nevada’s sports betting culture with their online-forward products or become just another brand on a sportsbook on The Strip remains to be seen.

“It’s really hard to say, just because [Nevada bettors are] so used to doing it the way they’ve been doing it here for so long,” David Schwartz, former director of the UNLV Center for Gaming Research, told PlayUSA. “So it could be that the people want something different. It could be that they don’t like it. I think they would just have to bring the product to market to see what they have.”

The only certainty, experts say, is that the companies will eventually be there. Gaming company executives always want to be, said Brendan Bussmann, director of government affairs of Global Market Advisors, noting how Genting and Resorts Worldmerged to purchase Echelon Place in Las Vegas 2013.

“I think first and foremost, at some point [DraftKings and FanDuel] will come here, no different than any brick-and-mortar casino would love to have a Nevada gaming license and take the plunge,” Bussmann told PlayUSA. “But there will be people here that have been stalwarts in this business that will try to stall them in getting licensed here. I can guarantee you that.”

There have been and will continue to be other like-minded aspirants, Bussmann added.

“There’s other operators outside besides those guys that I know have looked at Nevada and tried to figure out, ‘Where can I put my stake in the ground to make myself a part of this?’,” he said.

Bussmann noted that Mohegan Sun will enter Nevada by operating the sportsbook at the as-yet-unopened Virgin Hotel, the former Hard Rock.

“So here you have a new player coming into the market by virtue of being able to do that,” Bussmann explained. “I’m sure that DraftKings and FanDuel are no different as they’ve looked at Illinois or are looking at other avenues to be able to have market entry. And obviously, even under the current situation, there’s opportunity to move in that direction and get things set up and established, because it’s obviously worked in Nevada well before PASPA was repealed and still does today.”

Bussmann expects Nevada to at least move toward modernizing its mobile registration and deposit regulations by 2021.

What will complicate a DraftKings/FanDuel Nevada incursion

The fact that DraftKings and FanDuel are not traditional brick-and-mortar outlets complicates the process. But their collective national migration and growing share of national handle has been marked by alliances to acquire market access, or “skins.” FanDuel enjoys a mutually lucrative deal with the Meadowlands in New Jersey, and DraftKings recently announced an affiliation with Casino Queen Sportsbook in Illinois to avoid waiting a stifling 18 months for entry as a mobile-only option. Its rival secured Illinois as its sixth state for mobile and online wagering by aligning with Boyd Gaming to launch FanDuel Pair-A-Dice Sportsbook.

And current Nevada regulations figure to have an impact. Sportsbooks like Circa, William Hill and South Point had to set up drive-through registration, accounting funding and ticket redemption during the COVID-19-forced casino closures because those activities aren’t available on a mobile or online basis in the state. Pressure appears to be growing to modernize these rules and get into lockstep with other states, notably New Jersey.

But if DraftKings and FanDuel were to attempt entry under current regulations, one of their most powerful assets for customer acquisition could be negated, Bussmann said.

“Their market entry will be very interesting considering the way our current dynamics are with in-person registration and you have to go fill your account, which sort of is a barrier to their mobile model that works,” Bussmann said.

DraftKings co-founder and president Matt Kalish made the point while conducting a tour of the company’s new space — which could eventually house as many as 300 people — in a Las Vegas WeWork.

“Like everyone else, we have to go through our licensing, make sure we get all our paperwork in, all of that kind of stuff. It was a little bit … lower on the list only because there’s a requirement to sign up on-premises in Nevada, which is a little different than if you go to New Jersey, for example, [where] you just download DraftKings and start playing.”

Grove doesn’t believe that Nevada’s mobile regulations, which have come under heavy scrutiny during the period when casinos and sportsbooks were closed because of COVID-19 precautions, will be a deciding factor. With a state population of only roughly 3 million, even factoring in tourists’ impact, Nevada figures to be an increasingly “minor market,” he said, as more states legalize. Half of the top 10 states by population have legal sports betting in some form now.

“I don’t think that’s going to dictate their decision, because again, they’re not looking at the Nevada market like, ‘Hey, we have to win 80% of that market for it to be worthwhile,’” he said. “And the presence here is more about some of the optical benefits and the ancillary benefits as opposed to ‘Hey, being in Nevada is going to drive a significant amount of top line and bottom line for us.’ … It’s just certainly not that large of a market on a locals front. And even when you take locals plus tourists. it’s still not ultimately going to end up being a top-10 market in the US.”

Caesars affiliation could Provide DraftKings its home base

Gaming companies began parceling out the map of the United States like a Monopoly board in a wave of consolidation in 2019, and DraftKings was an early mover, entering into an equity-stake partnership with Caesars Entertainment in 2019 that provided market access to 14 states, including New Jersey, Mississippi, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The company has since merged with Eldorado Resorts to form a company with 55 casino properties, including in 16 states.

DraftKings, which has brick-and-mortar sportsbook affiliations in non-mobile-betting states New York and Mississippi, could have a partner waiting in Nevada through its association with Caesars.

During the Las Vegas office tour, Kalish noted the need to affiliate, saying, “In Nevada, you have to go to a brick-and-mortar casino, sign up and then you can use the sports betting app. DraftKings didn’t have a retail [outlet] — we’re a digital company, so we didn’t have a casino in Las Vegas that people could even go to to sign up.

“We’ve never really had that urgency to go get a license because we don’t have a way for consumers to get access to the product. We need to kind of solve that and then do the licensing in conjunction.”

But DraftKings, which has brick-and-mortar sportsbook affiliations in non-mobile-betting stakes New York and Mississippi, could have an in through its association with Caesars, and via merger, Eldorado Resorts.

Will Nevada’s DFS landscape negate DraftKings and FanDuel’s progress?

DraftKings and FanDuel each claimed user bases of around 8 million in 2019. Those legions of customers gave both companies advantages as they set about becoming dominant operators in each state they sowed in after the repeal of PASPA.

A ruling by the Nevada Gaming Commission in 2015 could nullify that advantage. The courts then established that, in short, DFS constitutes legal gambling, and that DraftKings and FanDuel would therefore be subject to the same licensing requirements as a counterpart like William Hill or MGM. Neither DraftKings nor FanDuel applied for licenses, and that left Nevada as one of the few states in the country where DFS is essentially nonexistent.

The companies would certainly still be recognizable in Nevada. But they will not have been amassing customers for five years to transition from fantasy to sports betting, as was the case in other states. Bussmann doesn’t believe they would start flat-footed, however.

“They both probably still have a decent database of Nevadans that initially jumped into fantasy before they were told ‘Get licensed or get out’ back in ’15,” Bussmann said. “And it’ll be interesting to see how the Gaming Control Board looks at that today five, six, seven, however many years later they decide to apply from that 2015 date, going back and saying, ‘Well, you guys chose not to then. What’s changed now from a regulatory standpoint?’

“But I think they could come in here and do very well just because they have a strong marketing base and they’re strong marketing organizations. They’re strong brands.”

Are Nevada bettors DraftKings/FanDuel material?

The habits of the Nevada market could challenge them, though. Analysts are loath to categorize East Coast bettors as more inclined toward mobile betting and their desert counterparts more prone to patronizing sportsbooks, citing geographic and demographic factors. But well over 80% of New Jersey’s handle is typically produced on phones and devices, while Nevada’s mobile handle slumped in July as the overall handle recovered, coinciding with the reopening of casinos.

According to Nevada Gaming Control Board senior research analyst Michael Lawton, mobile wagering has accounted for 55% of total write for sportsbooks through July, which is consistent with previous years.

With #NV July #sportsbetting data out today, interesting to look at NV sportsbook app download trends (~decent directional indicator of market share and customer acquisition). William Hill is seeing a post-sports-shutdown bounce that its rivals are not. pic.twitter.com/0k1HXYqinw

— Chris Krafcik (@CKrafcik) August 26, 2020

Another industry analyst countered, “They’d be fighting an entrenched existing business. And it might not be worth their while. Or it’s worth their while, but it’s going to be a slog. It’s not going to be like it was when they were the only two guys offering DFS.”

But that may not be the objective. A state of three million residents and all the tourists driving in from California or flying in from around the world is not the prize, Grove said.

The prize is in FanDuel or DraftKings taking up residence on Park Place — make that the Strip.

“They’re not coming to Nevada because they’re really interested in winning the Nevada locals market. It’s a small market. That’s not the point of showing up in Nevada,” he said. “The point of showing up in Nevada — and I’m sure they’ll be competitive — is FanDuel and DraftKings both trying to present themselves as nationwide-leading brands for sports betting. To present yourself as that and to not have a presence in the sports betting capital, arguably, in the world just doesn’t make any sense.”

There would be symmetry to it. Success as DFS providers nationally after the Nevada setback will have led both companies to the natural progression of sports betting. And that will have brought them back to the desert.

“That DFS decision back then — and it’s funny, because I worked for Wynn at the time — I was kind of against the DFS coming into Nevada because I thought that it could possibly impede on what we were already offering,” Avello told PlayUSA. “But now that I know how DFS works, it doesn’t. It more enhances sports betting than it does take away.

“So, I think when we’re positioned right, when we find the right partner in Nevada, we’ll be in Nevada.”

In the run-up to a Super Bowl, Johnny Avello has never had a customer plop a gym bag filled with a million dollars, in small denominations, on the countertop and put it all on a side or total.

But one guy did risk $400,000 or $500,000, in twenties and fifties, on one of the big-game outcomes.

In sheer enormity of a single Super Bowl wager, Jimmy Vaccaro probably claims the top spot by having accepted $2.4 million for a bet by a wealthy financier. It was executed via a wire and a marker, though, not cash.

That’s the grand Hollywood anomaly, however, as Jay Kornegay says he also has never fielded a seven-figure wager, on a Super Bowl or any other event, in his storied career.

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“Whenever any of us watches a movie that includes sports betting, like ‘Two for the Money,’ it’s comical,” Kornegay said. “At one point, I think Al Pacino says, ‘Go ahead and bet a couple of million on the Under first, then bet the Over.’ ”

Kornegay laughs, then said, “Yeah, good luck with that.”

The Super Bowl has become a lush tree of proposition options, in booklets comprised of two dozen pages, that are all rooted in New Orleans, the first seed having been planted on Jan. 26, 1986.

A kitchen appliance, epic emotional swings, a customer’s rage and an in-game shout-out from broadcasting legend Al Michaels himself all figure in the most memorable Super Bowl-betting scenes of a select group of sportsbook luminaries.

Super See-Saw

As Seattle slinked to the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX, in Glendale, Ariz., Johnny Avello was trekking from his Wynn Las Vegas office to the property’s sportsbook. A seven-figure sum rode on this play, and he wanted to feel the crowd.

“A big deal,” he said.

Avello always likes to experience the atmosphere of a big event, so throughout his career he has tried to spend at least half of his time on the floor, talking with customers, discussing spreads, analyzing games.

“Half that crowd was thinking it was about to cash this ticket with Seattle, because it had Marshawn Lynch, the Beast, at running back, and there was no way he would be stopped from the one,” Avello said. “Then, the pick happened, turning everything around.”

Twenty-six seconds remained. Instead of giving it to Lynch, though, Seattle opted to pass, and undrafted rookie Malcolm Butler intercepted an attempt from Russell Wilson at the goal-line to seal New England’s 28-24 victory.

Avello witnessed the half of the crowd that had been jubilant become deflated and sit down or put their hands on their heads. The other half that had been sullen suddenly jumped, clapped, and hollered.

“A total switch,” he says. “I’d never seen that before. It’s quite astonishing, because people were so happy and were anticipating … and it goes the other way! To see that flip in the crowd, to see it firsthand on such a big game, it had such a big impact not only on money but emotions.”

Millions of dollars were on the line, and it was not a good outcome for the Wynn bottom line. But Avello didn’t cringe.

“I really don’t cringe, because I’ve seen so many turnarounds in games,” he said. “When Atlanta had that 21-3 halftime lead (over New England in Super Bowl LI, and lost in overtime), we needed the Falcons that day. There are times when it’s worked for us, too.

“I’ve had it both ways. In the sportsbook business, the Super Bowl should not make or break your year anyway. I’ve gone five, six years in a row with Super Bowl wins. When you take big action and you lose, it’s a dent. It hurts. You just suck it up and move on to the next day.”

Hotline To Shanahan?

Before a packed Imperial Palace sportsbook, the patron screamed in full fury at Jay Kornegay. The guy had wagered on Denver reserve quarterback Bubby Brister to not have a rushing attempt against Atlanta in Super Bowl XXXIII.

IP book director Kornegay and his staff had detailed, in that proposition’s fine print, that a kneel-down constituted an attempt to run with the football.

With the game secured in Miami Gardens, Fla., Broncos coach Mike Shanahan put Brister in for John Elway. Brister took a knee. The customer knew Kornegay had roots in Colorado and accused him of having called Shanahan during the game.

“And told him to put Brister in, because we need him to get a rushing attempt,” said Kornegay, laughing. “Seriously? Yeah, I had a direct hotline. ‘Hey, Mike. Jay in Vegas. I know you’re busy but, uh, could you put Bubby in? Appreciate it. Thanks.’

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“No,” said a grinning Kornegay, who has run the Westgate SuperBook since 2004, to the obvious follow-up, “I’ve never met Shanahan in my life.”

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The Great Refund

When Gaughan Gaming sports director Vinny Magliulo was at Caesars Palace, he had okayed the payout of a coin-toss prop when he saw one team receiving the kickoff. He had gotten busy and assumed that’s what happened.

But the other side had correctly called the toss, then chose to defer to the second half. “Who does that in a Super Bowl?” says Magliulo, who would give the company’s accountants headaches by having ticket writers pay off both sides.

However, he has a better story. When Green Bay beat New England, 35-21, in Super Bowl XXXI in New Orleans, the game had remained solidly at Packers -14 points in its two-week run-up.

“The Great Refund,” says Magliulo, who closes his eyes and still sees that long line snaking around the casino floor. “We were refunding for twenty-four hours!”

Which compelled him to brainstorm a generic line—NFC -2.5 over AFC—on the next season’s Super Bowl. He aimed to catch the attention of everyone in that never-ending line. It worked.

“I thought, ‘Let’s take a shot,’ and we did six figures on the following year’s Super Bowl, right there,” he says. “It was fantastic. ‘Gimme a hundred on AFC … five hundred on NFC,’ and nobody knew who would be in it. Think about that. What were we going to do, give all that money back?

“We were saying, ‘Wow, look at this. Don’t forget to bet next year’s game!’ It’s really quite amazing to see how the Super Bowl has evolved, not only into such a great event but such a great betting event, as well.”

On Seat Edges

With his regular patronage of the Hilton, broadcaster Al Michaels and SuperBook director Art Manteris formed a friendship that endures today. Michaels prefers table games to sports, and his friends became tight with Manteris, too.

Michaels would ring Manteris for line movements and updates, and that’s what Michaels did before San Francisco played San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX. The 49ers were favored by 18 points.

“And I told Al how badly we needed the Chargers,” says Manteris, “that all the money was on San Francisco and I was really going to be sweating the game.”

San Francisco had taken a 49-18, but San Diego battled back. The Chargers scored, making it 49-26, held the 49ers and got the ball back.

“Now, all of a sudden,” says Manteris, “we found ourselves in position for a late backdoor cover.”

San Diego quarterback Stan Humphries started a drive at his own 8-yard line, with 99 seconds remaining, and guided the Chargers to the San Francisco 35. Three downs remained. Two passes were incomplete.

Fourth-and-one, mere seconds left. A hefty six-figure sum was about to remain in the Hilton’s cash registers or be handed to fortunate ticket-holders.

“Remember, back then they weren’t allowed to talk about point spreads,” says Manteris. “And Al says to (Dan Dierdorf), ‘I’m sure I know some people are sitting on the edge of their seats in Las Vegas watching this play.’

“I look at (protégé) Chuckie Esposito. We were literally sitting on the edge of our seats on chairs in my office, and he looks at me.”

Humphries’s pass sailed out of the back of the end zone.

“We lose. But I’ll always remember laughing when Al said that. He knew exactly what I was going through, and I knew exactly that he was referencing me. Chuckie and I laughed, then we cried when the pass went incomplete.”

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The Fridge

Chicago coach Mike Ditka had put 350-pound defensive tackle William “Refrigerator” Perry into the Bears’ backfield on goal-line situations during the 1985 season, and the Fridge had scored two touchdowns.

For Super Bowl XX, Manteris, then directing the Caesars Palace sportsbook, and his team had produced a prop on Perry scoring against the Patriots. Manteris opened it at 20-1, which an avalanche of cash whittled to 2-1 by kickoff.

Late in the third quarter, the Bears had the ball on the New England 1-yard line. Ditka put the Fridge in. Sterling tailback Walter Payton served as a decoy. Perry plunged into the end zone to give Chicago a 44-3 advantage.

That scene dominates the memory of Tony Miller, now sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget who was then writing tickets for Manteris at Caesars.

“I can remember Art standing out there when William Perry scored that touchdown,” said Miller. “It cost the book. We went from big winners to big losers. And I remember Art screaming, he was so upset that Perry scored that touchdown.

“They didn’t give it to Walter Payton, and we lost tons of money. I went, ‘Oh, boy.’ Those props have just taken off over the years, but that’s the one that sticks out in my mind. Everybody in the world bet that the Fridge would score a touchdown.”

Decades later, Manteris, the vice president for race and sports operations at Station Casinos, says that single prop cost Caesars $250,000. Asked if a Mount Manteris eruption compares to Mount Etna, he laughs.

“We got killed on that prop, and I was furious. But the next day I got calls from the president of Caesars World, the president of Caesars Palace, everyone congratulated me because it got so much national attention.”

$2.4 Million

In advance of that 49ers-Chargers Super Bowl, financier Carl Icahn rang Jimmy Vaccaro at the Mirage and had $2.4 million wired from his bank to the property’s cages.

When Icahn visited, he and Vaccaro strolled to the cage, Icahn obtained the high-dollar marker and they returned to the book.

Icahn put it all on San Francisco, at -800 on the moneyline, to win $300,000.

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“I jokingly said to him, ‘Do you want any more?’ I knew, with San Diego being in its first Super Bowl, that we were going to get car after car after car coming to town to bet on San Diego,” said Vaccaro.

“This knucklehead (Icahn) would come to town once or twice a year and bet these huge, huge amounts on stuff like that.”

Icahn made Vaccaro, now the South Point’s vice president for sports marketing, promise that he wouldn’t tell anybody. Vaccaro promised.

“Then he went to play poker with the Stuey Ungars of the world and he told all of them, and they told their friends. A guy soon rang me and said, ‘Jimmy, I heard …’ I said, ‘Yeah, it’s true.’ Here’s a (expletive) guy who told me not to say anything …”

Of course, Icahn won the $300,000. That was the largest bet Vaccaro has ever taken in a legendary career, and he says he didn’t flinch. Icahn, 84, is one of Wall Street’s most successful financiers, worth about $15 billion today.

“Two point four million or two hundred and forty dollars, what the (expletive) is the difference?” says Vaccaro. “The bottom line is, You give us money. If you win, in three hours, you get it back. If you lose, we keep the money.”